Multivariate Testing - Overdoing It?

Yes - for most sites.

Contrary to what most gurus are saying today, for sites with under 1000 unique visitors per week, simple split testing will work better for you. Why? The first is simple math. Tom Lindmeier explains it better than I could - but the bottom line, without big, stable traffic numbers and a steady, measured conversion rate, your multivariate testing results are not much better than choosing a ‘winner’ sales page at random.

Any freshman statistics student learns that for a statistical observation to be reliable, it needs to be derived from a sample size large enough to ensure reliability. If you are launching a new product or site with zero traffic to start - you are making a mistake if you are making copy writing decisions based on statistics based on just a few hundred visitors and a handful of sales. Keep in mind also, the more variables you test, the more observations you will need for a valid test. The second reason I don’t like this approach is that the software used in multivariate testing puts your sales letter into ‘cookie cutter’ mode. You have to break your approach down into predictable chunks: “ok, here is the guarantee, here is the call to action”…etc. This flies in the face of good copy writing development technique. When you are launching a new product - you need to test more than just variations on the same basic sales letter. You need a few different sales letters, that have variations in headline, appeal, target audience and content order/format. You can’t be bound to what your ’software’ says you can do with your variations and ideas.

My advice: split test 3 or 4 sales letters first - in 30 sales or so, you’ll know what overall approach is working best - then you can work out the minutiae of what color, guarantee copy, etc. converts best. John Taylor has an excellent script that is inexpensive and works well. It is better than Google’s free solution and some of the older tracking scripts like the Scientific Marketing Assistant because it keeps all of your traffic on your domain’s index page- a very important SEO advantage. Check out the sales page for my enhanced version of AdTest Pro. My enhanced version allows you to add pages to test AFTER the test has begun, and allows you to edit pages after they go live. John has kindly allowed me to resell my version of the script. Check out the sales page, or just click the button below to buy:

AdTest Pro - $9.95
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